Stumbling on Wins

Stumbling on Wins: Two Economists Explore the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports.

David Berri and Martin Schmidt

The next quantum leap beyond Moneyball, this book offers powerful new insights into all human decision-making, because if sports teams are getting it wrong this badly, how do you know you’re not? Sometimes the decisions that teams make are simply inexplicable. Consider: sports teams have an immense amount of detailed, quantifiable information to draw upon, more than in virtually any other industry. They have powerful incentives for making good decisions. Everyone sees the results of their choices, and the consequences for failure are severe. And yet… they keep making the same mistakes over and over again… systematic mistakes you’d think they’d learn how to avoid.

Now, two leading sports economists reveal those mistakes in basketball, baseball, football, and hockey, and explain why sports decision-makers never seem to learn their lessons. You’ll learn which statistics are connected to wins, and which aren’t, and which statistics can and can’t predict the future. Along the way, David Berri and Martin Schmidt show why a quarterback’s place in the draft tells you nothing about how he’ll perform in the NFL… why basketball decision-makers don’t focus on the factors that really correlate with NBA success… why famous coaches don’t deliver better results… and much more.

“…Almost nobody calls for statistical models to replace general managers — Berri and Schmidt are adventurous in asserting that the people running the show seem to have little idea how to do their jobs.”

Henry Abbott for ESPN
“The Robots are Coming, and They’re Cranky”

“Isiah Thomas wasn’t really such a bad NBA executive. Phil Jackson raises the game of even superstar-laden teams. And kicking that field goal on fourth-and-goal from the three-yard line? Bad move.

These are just a few of the widely held sports beliefs economists David Berri and Martin Schmidt attack in their new book Stumbling on Wins, an analytical look at performance and decision-making in sports that is bound to provoke barstool arguments across America.”

Tom Van Riper for Forbes
“Is Lebron Really the Best?”